29 Sep 2017 Stable market before holiday and a new word "FinTech"

Affect by the holiday, the stock market on 29 Sep is very steady with only 73B volume when it ended. Relatively strong movement appear after 3pm and HSI increase from 100 points to 150 points. The performance of the previously mentioned new stock ZnongAn(6060.HK) is still very weak and now it much closer to its IPO price $59.7. My original plan is to purchase more stocks if the stock price is over $70, which is a huge reference point for this stock, but given the weak performance, we should still observe the stock for a longer period.

At this moment I am still holding Tencent which is worth ~$150000, some 2823.HK and 7300.HK and the cash ratio is about 50%. As HSI is about 27500, which is in the middle of the range of 27000-28000, I prefer not doing anything except day trading. 

Apart from the stock market, I want to talk about FinTech. FinTech, which refers to Financial Technology, is a very popular word nowadays. The first time I heard this word is from my boss Dennis, and then the new listing stock ZhongAn Online. When I first heard this word, I completely did not understand what does this mean and because of this, I found my best friend, Google, to search the exact meaning of this term. The evolution of technology helps people to do everything in a more convenient way, including financial business. In the past, people already purchased insurance by face-to-face communication,  but now people can use their smartphone and credit card to purchase insurance online without going to insurance companies. 

Fintech is definitely a good idea to attract more international institutions and investors to have business in HK so as to further expand the financial market in Hong Kong. Take securities industry as an example, according to the ordinance from SFC, to open a securities account, we must have a witness to confirm the identity of the account opener. However, to do so, witnesses are not the only way. With the aid of technology, video conversation, or fingerprint confirmation, etc are some alternatives to help account openers to finish all the procedure at home. People no longer need to waste time to do the witness confirmation, especially for people living outside Hong Kong. 

I understand that security problem is a  big concern for regulators as we can never imagine how advanced technology could be, including fake fingerprint production, pre-recorded video conversation, etc. Regulators need to have deliberation on the consequences and which one should take the responsibility when some financial crimes happen. I believe that the regulators are still working on all the rules and details before implementing any fin-tech related policies to make big changes to the whole financial industry. Let us wait and see the presents our regulators will give us in the future 

28 Sep 2017 What IPO cases tell us

Today,28 Sep 2017, is the listing date of ZhongAn Online 6060.HK with the listing price of $59.7, which is extremely expensive compared to the profit performance of the company. There are two reasons making this stock such a high listing price, including the industry the company is involved and the star investors who subscribed for the new shares.

ZhongAn is a fin-tech company involving in the online insurance business. After the outstanding performance of technology companies, including Tencent, 2018.HK, 2382.HK, etc, the market usually provided a high premium price to them. However, the implication of this IPO to me is that the stock market is already at the peak so that the company would like to have IPO at this time to enjoy high premium price. Similarly, in October 2019, another famous company China Literature Limited is preparing for its IPO. It used to be a part of the Tencent business and now Tencent decides to divide it into another listed company. Enjoying the reputation of Tencent, the market also offers a very high premium price to CLL with a PE ratio of over 900 despite its poor profit performance in the past 3 years. From these two IPO cases, I think that both companies are intended to choose autumn as the IPO date so as to gain the maximum capital from the market and their IPO show that it is the time for investors to consider selling all their stocks.

 Apart from the stock market, there is also a personal experience I would like to share. When backing home yesterday(27 Sep 2017), there was a dragonfly in the home and, according to its flying pattern, it was obvious that it lost its way to escape from this house. Hence, I decided to help it and used a paper to hit the wall so as to make some sound which provided it the flying position. Then the dragonfly moved to the toilet and I turned on the exhaust fan and hoped that the wind flow could give it some hints about the position of the window which is the exit. Unfortunately, the stupid dragonfly might think that exhaust fan was the exit and it hit the rotating fan, which caused its life. This story tells me that sometimes we may finally do a bad thing even if our intention at the beginning is to do something good. There are many things out of our control and far from our expectation. What we need to do is to accept the truth and think what we can improve so that the similar tasks could be done better.

27 Sep 2017 HSI still moving in the 27K-28K range

I feel really sorry about missing the blog in yesterday. Now the market looks like a child who loses his way to home. He does not know which direction he should go and when he should stop. HSI is moving in a range of 27000-28000 and still waiting for some news or issues to clean out all the uncertainty, including war, company annual report, economic stats, etc. However, I think, in this moment, the probability of HSI to go up or down is not fifty-fifty. After a nine-month uptrend of HSI, the market has been accumulated a lot of profits that wait for the release. If there is some serious threat in the world, including the war between USA and the North Korea, the market could drop for at least 4000 points. But this serious international conflict is just an assumption at this moment and the truth is the HSI now has no direction. Hence, Day-trading is the plan that I will choose and hope for good results.

25/9/2017 Turns out day trading plan may not be suitable for me + love relationships

Today is the second time that I resume writing this blog with a very a sad feeling. As mentioned before, I bought a huge amount of 7200 last Friday for day trading but I was not able to sole them out due to the busy workload. 

Then, on this Monday morning, HSI dropped ~150 points when the market started and it accelerated to ~400 points at the end of the market. It is a huge loss for people who bought a lot of stocks and +ve Etf, including me. 

However, I am not caring how much I lost in the morning. What we should care is that whether the true fall or the market crash has come. In my opinion, HSI is still moving in a range between 27000-28000, so buying at 27000 and selling at 28000 is the plan that we suppose to follow. Previously, I thought that it is the time that HSI will be over 28000 and step to another uptrend stage, which is wrong after looking at the performance of HSI today. A wrong decision comes along with capital loss and a correct decision comes along with fortunes. Hence, the most important point is what is our next plan after knowing the market performance.  

Given HSI is still in a range of 27000-28000, what we should do is to wait until HSI is above 28000, which is a moment to buy +ve ETF or below 27000 which is a moment to buy -ve ETF. To get all the capital we lost before, we must be brave enough to invest all the remaining money into the market. Please remember.

Overall, I think I am a very unlucky person and still in a process to understand the stock market. Every time when I keep all the stocks which supposed to be day traded overnight, a huge capital loss will occur.

Let us discuss love and relationships. My colleague, a fresh graduate girl who just worked in this company for around 3 weeks, told me she was in a relationship with her boyfriend for around 1 week and now they broke up as her boyfriend betrayed her. As she had relationships with 3 boyfriends and this is the fourth broke up experience, I think it should not be a very big problem for her to recover due to the short relationship period.  However,  she is really sad this time and the feeling of sadness is much deeper than the experience before, which means she does deeply love the ex-boyfriend. Because of the above reason, she is willing to wait for the ex-boyfriend to come back after he broke up with her new girlfriend and she does not mind being a substitute even if she was betrayed by him. After understanding to her case, I am really speechless and wonder why there will be such a stupid girl in this world as she truly believes that a man who betrayed her before will not do the same thing next time, which shows that she completely does not understand the human nature. The reason for gold being the most expensive metal in the world is mainly because of the rarity, which makes people value it and feel reluctant to abandon it. No person will value anything which could be found everywhere, including air, water, etc. Hopefully, she will finally understand that she will gain no love from everyone if she fails to show her value.

23/09/2017 A new start of this blog

It is the first time I write this blog again since several months before. Honestly, I am really happy that I get motivated again to re-write it. This blog used to be my channel to express my financial views, especially in the stock market. However, later on, I found that I did not have too much to write as it is not easy to write something new about the market every day. Then I tried to write the blog every week or even month and finally, I abandoned this habit.

After having a very disappointed group interview of SATCO in civil aviation department, I originally found that the problem is because of my poor English speaking ability and shot concentration time to understand what other interviewees said. However, talking to my supervisors, I found out my true problem is the lack of confidence, which has been a very serious problem for me as it has already caused me to lose a lot of opportunities including meeting friends, getting jobs and having girlfriends. I know that it is the problem while I try my best to avoid facing instead of solving it.

Conclusion in one sentence: The way you face and handle your own problems results in your density.  If you face your problems bravely, you will get a good result and vice versa.

In fact, I really feel appreciated to have this group interview experience provided by CAD, which gives me a good chance to deeply understand myself and force me to solve the problems. I have learnt a lot with this interview, even if I finally did not receive an offer.

OK, then back to the original purpose of this blog, which is about the stock market. Several months ago, I thought that 24000 is the top of HSI and expected that It would drop to around 22000, so I bought a lot of 7300, which is an ETF having a contrary performance to HSI. Then I realized that I was wrong and HSI skyrocketed to 27800, which is the value on 22 Sep. As HSI was over 28000 several days before and Tencent broke it 1-year high as well, I regarded this as a buy signal and bought some Tencent stocks. However, on Friday, HSI dropped around 200 points to ~27800 and I bought a huge amount of 7200.HK, which is an ETF that double the performance of HSI on that trading day. The reason is that once the buy signal is shown, the uptrend should last for at least weeks. Hence, it is good timing to buy stocks. Hopefully, it is a correct decision.