25/4/2017, Is what I am doing correct? Is my new trading strategy feasible?

After conducting the research to investigate the volatility of a typical bull market, it is found that during a bull/bear market, HSI usually changes ~2000-4000 points and then it will turn around.

Hence, my new trading strategy is to gradually buy Inverse HSI ETF when it has already risen ~3000 points and gradually buy HSI ETF when it has already drop ~3000 points.

It is clear that now we are under bull market and HSI has already risen ~3000 points( From 21500 to 24500). Hence I started to buy inverse HSI ETF when it was around 24200 and buy more and it hit ~23800, However, now HSI bounces up to 24455(25 Apr 2017 data) and I already have some loss, which makes me worried about the potential huge loss.

Therefore, the purpose of today's topic is whether it is a good strategy or whether I am not mentally-strong enough to execute this strategy without any hesitation. Indeed, at least in this moment, I still truly believe this trading strategy works. What make it worse is my mental condition. Being mentally strong is really vital to survive in stock market, where you need to use your money, which is very hard-earned by you or someone who trusts you very much, to do a lot of gambling.

Hopefully, I can survive in this casino.

18/4/2017, After Easter

After the 3-month rally, it is the first time that the close of HSI is below 24000. From the previous rally, HSI already rose 3000 points, which should be nearly the end of the rally according to the historical data. Hence, probably it is the second last timing to buy inverse ETF and there maybe a double peak pattern, which is the last chance to buy inverse ETF.

Therefore, hopefully HSI will drop to 23500 in short time and then rebounce to 24000 which is the second peak. Then it will drop to 22500.

02 Apr 2017 Completely wrong prediction, but focus on the future

Refer to the last post, it was expected that HSI would drop to 20000, but in fact, it stopped at 21500 and rise to 24500 which is a year high record. My prediction is totally wrong and i could only earn ~15000 from that rally (expect to earn $50000).

However, it has already gone and we need to look future to find another investment opportunities. From the previous rally, there are some interesting facts that we should remember and see whether they will be important buy/sell signals.

1. the volume rise to 100bn, is it a signal for rally or decline?
2. after reaching 24000, stock prices of those with low/mid market value increased a lot, and now starting dropping
3. Volume drop to ~700bn, but maybe it is because of the coming holidays
4. Most financial reporter thought now it is in the correction period but not a decline

I think the decline is coming really soon, already plan to buy inverse HSI index etf to capture the decline.