2016年11月25日 星期五

26/11/2016 Dow's index reached historical high, how about HSI? Should we still trust media?

As I will take the JRE exam later, writing blog is good change to practice English writing. So, this time the content will be in English.

After the president election in America, due to the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the election, it is expected that there will be a huge fall in stock market. Ironically, the America and stock market runs contrarily and reaches historical high.

It is a very interesting phenomenon that surprising news appears very frequently nowadays and media control, in my opinion, is the root making everyone shocked. Normally, people receive information by social media and television and they will make decision based on what they get in front of screens. In other words, if an organization is powerful enough to control the media, it can spread what they want people to receive and insert that thought into their mind. If the through, which is deeply into residents' mind, is actually incorrect, an unexpected outcome will appear and it can result in huge impact in financial market, which is a perfect timing to earn a lot of money.

This story tells me that do not be distracted easily and trust personal judgement only based on the fact but not opinion.

Then let talk about the stock market. From the past several weeks, stock market in America, China and Japan rose a lot, whereas Hong Kong stock market still keeps its own path, which is a piece of very frustrating news for investors, such as me, focusing on Hong Kong stock market. 

One of my main concerns is that the Cow-Bear Ratio keeps very high for a long time period, which arouse my curiosity that whether it is still a good signal to find out a good timing to input buy or sell order. RSI, however, keep showing its value to provide good signal for me and I appreciate it a lot.

At this moment, my Stock:money ratio is about 35:65 and I feel safe at this position. Due to the increasing trend in international stock market, I may be willing to increase the ratio to 40-45:60-55.

I am happy and stay positive in this trend and hopefully Hong Kong stock market will catch up very soon


Technical Analysis
RSI: 49.3
Dow's Index: 19152
Cow-Bear Ratio: 61:39  






  



   

2016年11月6日 星期日

06/11/2016 從以往歷史估計目前恆指情況

文章開始前,先從過往的數據了解以前恆指的走勢, 下列數據為恆指經歷了金融海潚後恆指的高低點
27/10/2008: lowest: 10676 18/11/2009: highest: 23099    27/5/2010: 18971

Change of Percentage
27/10/2008 10676
18/11/2009 23099(+116.5)
27/05/2010 18971(-18%)

金融海潚後, 恆指用了大慨一年的時間到達頂點,再用6個月的時間到達低點.而經歷內地股市大幅調整後,恆點在02/2016 到達低點(18278), 在09/2016 時到達最高點(24364, +33.5%). 如根據以往走勢的話, 恆指很有可能會經歷長達數月之跌勢.

美國總統大選將會在下星期二開始, 目前兩大侯選人的支持度不相伯仲,令人覺得對股市有壞影響的特朗普支持度近日開始回升.但本人認為希拉里當選的機會仍然十分之高,故我會在星期一的跌市期間買入股票, 期望希拉里當選時股市會回升數日.

Current market analysis
09/09/2016: 24364(highest)
04/11/2016: 22642(close) (-7%)
目前股市已從高位回落大慨2000點, 根據夜期的表現, 很有可能星期一 一開市便會再跌200點, 恆指RSI 已回落至37, 接近超賣, 配合星期二總統大選, 故我認為星期一 會是一個不錯的買入時機.
如果恆指的跌幅真如以往大幅調整18%, 那恆指的目標價便會在 20000點左右, 到時亦是一個買入的機會. 如果真的跌至20000點的話, 到時市場,社會肯定會叫苦連天,說恆指會再破新低, 緊記這是人們正常的反應(恐慌), 到時請不用害怕, 盡情買入便對了

Current Holding:
Amount of Stock Holding: (~7%)
Available Cash:  (~93%)

Holding after Mon: Stock(~14%), Cash(~86%)

Technical Analysis
HSI RSI: 37
Cow-Bear Ratio: 62:38
Dow's Index: 17888




2016年11月5日 星期六

30/6/2016

如我所預期的一樣, 經過大跌後, 過幾天便會有相應的反彈. 現在已從低位 19662點 反彈超過1000點, 快要接近脫歐前的高位 21034點. 由於目前市況仍然未明朗, 過多持股會令我有一點壓力, 所以在今天賣出 40% 2800, 拿回部分現金. 現持股比例已從高位80%降至58%, 還可以接受.

由於目前所有指標仍處中間水平, 故現在未有什麼方向,故結論是繼續觀望

Technical analysis
HSI RSI: 54.7
牛熊: 未更新
道指: 未更新
港股通: 88.69億