13 Nov 2017 Can Hong Kong and other stock markets keep climbing high?

HSI has been reaching 29000 points and most investors are waiting for 30000 points given it seems to be stable at 29000 points. However, the performance of stock markets in other countries does not seem as good as Hong Kong and China. Both Japan and Europe markets have been undergoing adjustment period where the NIKKEI 225, DAX and CAP dropped over 1% on 13 Nov. This phenomenon indicates the weakness and investors tend to keep more money for the downward adjustment period.

Despite the weak performance of Japan and Europe markets, the China and Hong Kong markets keep moving upward and attempt to reach a higher level. Recently, the investment amounts through South bound trading have increased which shows the high demand for Hong Kong stocks and provides fuel for HSI to reach a higher level. After reaching 29000 points, HSI is also undergoing adjustment period but the trend is flatter compared to the Japan and Europe Markets. This trend provides huge support for investors of Hong Kong stock market that they could still hold stocks and wait for HSI 30000.

After the astonishing performance of Chine Lit.(772.HK), the IPO market in Hong Kong is getting hotter and attract more laymen to invest. The reasons for investors are not about their profitability but the industries that companies are involved and how famous the fundamental investors are, which definitely show the irrationality of investors. 13 Nov is the listing day of one the most popular stocks with technology and new business background Razer(1337.HK). Usually, newly listing stocks would not close at a price that is lower than the closing price of internal trading, but this is not the case for Razer. Another newly listing stock Crystal Group(2232.HK) even closed below the listing price, which is a very surprised for investors. It is a serious warning for every investor that we should not feel easy but take it serious about the IPO market.

As usual, US market is the most influential indicator towards the global stock markets. Recently, the tax reform policies have been under pressure and are against by some billionaires in US. Hopefully, it the tax reform could be implemented as planned to keep the upper trend of the global stock markets.

   

29 Oct 2017 Be ready and sit tight to embrace HSI 30000

Starting from Jan 2017, Hang Seng Index(HSI) has been on the upper trend and have almost no fallback. On 16 Oct 2017, HSI was successful above the highest record in 2015, 28600 points, and attempted to reach to 30000 points. At that time, I believed that the probability that HSI reached 30000 or even 32000 points is really high and so I almost use all the remaining cash to buy 7200.HK, which is an ETF doubling the performance of HSI on a daily basis. Unfortunately, the result is not what I expected before. HSI then dropped to below 28600 and I lost during the fall.

Despite weak performance of HSI in late Oct 2017, the performance of US markets is excellent and it continues breaking record high due to the positive perspectives among investors regarding the tax reduction plan formulated by Donald Trump and his team.

In addition to US stock markets, Chinese stock markets attempt to undergo its first upped trend to reach 3500 points after the market crash in 2015. With reference to the performance of HSI in 2017, SHA should also reach at least 3600 or even 4000 if more investors get involved in the market and become more irrational.

Given all the major stock markets are still moving within the upper trend, I decided to keep every stock of 7200.HK and wait until HSI hit 30000.

Last Friday, due to the huge subscription amount of IPhone X, Nasdaq Index closed at about 6700 points, which increased 2% compared to the previous trading day. It is believed that HSI will reach 29000 in next week and 30000 within 2017. Let us sit tight and be ready to enjoy the happiness that HSI 30000 brings to us.

22 Oct 2017 Weekly social issue - athletes in Hong Kong

1.introduction of athlete in HOng KOng

2. problems that athletes are facing

3. what people criticize them

4. my thought

Athletes in Hong Kong used to be a group of people on which the Hong Kong government and the public did not put emphasize as Hong Kong is a city focusing more on financial and logistic industries etc. Recently, athletes in Hong Kong have been focused due to their outstanding performance in international competitions, so they received more business opportunities and to be seen on social media including advertisement and television shows, which arouses the issue of sports and athletes development in Hong Kong again.

Being immersed by traditional Chinese thoughts, studying is what most parents of Hong Kong always encourage their children and other activities such as playing games and sports are regards as waste of time. The reason behind this is that the most of the highly respected jobs in Hong Kong including lawyers, doctors, pilots and so on require to be academic excellence and spending a huge amount of time to study is one of the effective ways to achieve it. However, if not studying hard, most students may only receive jobs which are barely respected. As a result, being athletes as a career is barely encouraged by parents despite teenagers talented in sports, which causes a lack of world-class athletes in Hong Kong. Despite lack of resources of talented athletes development, still Hong Kong achieved outstanding performance on international competitions including snooker, bicycle,  badminton and so on, which creates more business chances for outstanding athletes. Although it could break the traditional thoughts that fortune could not be made by Hong Kong athletes, it results in another criticism again athletes being too focused on business instead of sports.

It is supposed that athletes should focus on their career in sports and prepare themselves to strive for the honor of Hong Kong and the time for preparing other business opportunities, such as advertisement job should not replace their training time. However, given the high frequency that they appear on the social media, the public of Hong Kong may doubt that if they have enough regular practice time. Also, there may be some criticism towards those athletes that they gradually lose the original goal as athletes and become more like stars who focus on financial income. Income is a realistic problem that every person of Hong Kong needs to face no matter who you are. Athletes may need to face various problems that force them to have more money for the future. If daily practice and the performance of athletes are not affected by other activities, they should be free to whatever they are willing.

Athletes of Hong Kong have been receiving more exposure thought social media recently due to their outstanding results in international competitions. This will definitely attract more citizens to pay attention to sports in Hong Kong and encourage more youngsters to find their career in sports activities. Athletes will always be one of the most important group in Hong Kong.

15/10/2017 A brief discussion about the transportation subsidy policy

The current Chief Executive(CE) of Hong Kong, Mrs. Lam, just released her first Policy Address 2017 on last Wednesday. Policy Addresses used to be irrelevant for people who are not taxpayers and did not own apartments as the main policies benefiting people of Hong Kong in terms of financial aid is through the refund of salaries and 物業 tax. However, there is a  new policy helping people of Hong Kong with huge transportation expenses. This article will explore the features of the transportation policy and the impacts towards citizens.

The policy focuses on benefiting those who spend more than $400 for transportation thought Octopus in a month. The public will receive a 25 percent of refund after the transportation expense is over $400 HKD, which will benefit for more than 2 million workers based on the statistic provided by the government.  For people having vacations in Saturday and Sunday, there will be 22 working days and they will be benefited if they spend over $18 a day, which is the amount people move from Kowloon or New Territories to Hong Kong island. Given that the transportation fees have been increasing recently and it results in unsatisfaction among the community, this newly released policy will definitely ease their financial burden and improve their quality of life. However, as the calculation method of the transportation is only based on the history of Octopus, which means miscalculation may also occur. 

Fees for other purposes will be included as well. Octopus record is not accurate enough for recording the transportation history of working. For instance, one of the most controversial issues towards the policy is that it would help parallel trading activities due to the decrease in transportation expense from Hong Kong to Shenzhen, which means they would always receive the maximum subsidy. Also, the amount of maximum subsidy, $300, is calculated per Octopus card. In order words, over $300 subsidies could be received for holders with several Octopus cards. Hence, some express their view that people with parallel trading activities, instead of workers of Hong Kong, received the most from the policy.

Once this opinion is brought to the community, the C.E., Mrs. Lam, said that compared to the number of workers in Hong Kong, residents with parallel trading activities are just a minority, Restrictions should not be added because of them as it will, therefore, decrease the number of people benefiting from the policy.  It is the difficulty of formulating policies as it is almost impossible to design a perfect policy with only benefits to every stakeholder and no drawbacks.  What the government needs to consider is to formulate policies that could help most of the public and try to minimize the negative influence caused by it. I appreciate that the government understands one of the main principles of policies formulation and I look forward to more housing policies which help adolescents in Hong Kont afford their first apartment.  

  

08 Oct 2017 A brief discussion about the transportation from Hung Hom to Cross Harbour Tunnel

The traffic condition in Hung Hom is the topic on this blog. Traffic congestion in Hung Hom, especially for the road to Cross Harbour Tunnel, has been a very serious problem affecting a lot of people of Hong Kong living in Kowloon. In the working day morning, the traffic jam is so problematic that it takes passengers more than an hour from Hung Hom to Sheung Wan while the expected transportation time is just around half an hour. The situation worsens after 6 pm at which most workers plan to go home. In the worst case, the traffic jam takes people 2 hours home, which is completely unacceptable. More importantly, the problem will not be alleviated with more citizens planning to take driver licenses and purchase their personal vehicles, so policies need to be implemented as soon as possible to tackle the traffic jam problem.  The following suggests some possible measures aiming at alleviating the problem.

A short-term measure includes promoting alternative working hours could be a way to alleviate the road demand during the busy time/hours. The public of Hong Kong shares the same feeling that traffic jams happen in periods between 8-9 am and 6-7 pm which is the time for most people to go to work and home. In other periods, the vehicle motion is relatively smooth and the roads are affordable to the current vehicles demand, which means one of the effective solutions is to minimise the number of vehicles during busy hours. To achieve this, encouraging alternative working hours is what the government could do to alleviate the problem. The government could take the lead to encourage departments to plan alternative working time so as to decrease the number of private vehicles during busy hours and alleviate the demand for road use. This measures could also indicate how determined the government hopes to solve the problem and demonstrate to companies what they could to support the policies that benefit all people of Hong Kong using roads. Some possible alternative working hour plans include working from 7am or 11am so the busy hours could be avoided and workers need less time for transportation which means more leisure time they could enjoy.

In addition to alternative working hours, road building and expansion will be regarded as a long-term improvement method. Even if encouraging alternative working time could be really helpful for the current situation, a more effective measure is also needed to fulfill the vehicles demand in the future. Building road is the one to do so that the road space is expanded and more car could be filled on it at the same time. However, there is a big problem that should not be overlooked, which is the capacity of tunnels. Given that more roads are built and all vehicles move smoothly, they will eventually be stuck at the entrance of the Cross Habour Tunnel when it already reaches full capacity. Hence, road and tunnel expansion should be done in a pair in order to ensure the traffic jam problem can effectively be solved. The process takes years for the whole procedure including planning, construction, exploration, etc, so the short-term measure should be considered during the construction.

The article briefly introducing some suggestions towards the current traffic jam problem aims at providing some insight for people to think more about where Hong Kong should start to plan the solution and how the stakeholders of Hong Kong could participate in alleviating the problem.

6 Oct 2017 HSI about to hit 28588! + How to choose your career

3 Oct 2017 was the first trading day in Oct on which no buying power is from the mainland thought Shanghai-Hongkong connect due to the public holiday, so most investors expect a steady movement of HSI on that day. However, stock markets are places always surprising people and HSI grew about 600 points without the support from the mainland. Moreover, this 600 points also made HSI at a stage over 28000 and was moving to 28588 which is the highest level of HSI since 2015 with a huge resistance.

On 4 Oct 2017, HSI grew another 350 points when the stock market started, but it ended with only 200 points. On 6 Oct 2017, HSI grew another 250 points when the market started but turns out only 80 points at the end of the market. The performance of these 2 days gives investors an intense feeling that it is extremely difficult to go further and you better sold all the holdings right now. It also gives me this kind of feeling and it is the moment I should start purchasing -ve ETF.  However, after the punishment I received several months ago and given the fact that HSI is above 28000 and Dow's broke its new high, I should keep the existing holdings and wait until more information and signals appear to us.

Apart from the stock market, another topic included today is the career.

After working for above 9 months in the securities firm at which no future could be seen, it is time to explore other working opportunities. My boss told me another securities firm is recruiting MT which is the current position I work for. Although I do not know anything about that company, I assume it should be better than the company I work for.  Actually, the topic today is not about new job opportunities. The main point is when choosing a job, which factors we should consider first. My boss told me interest should be the first priority but not the salaries as working for a job that you dislike for 10-20 years is really painful. I shared the same opinion when after graduation from secondary school and that is the reason I take Chemistry as a major instead of Engineering which is definitely a subject which can earn more money. The consequence because this choice is definitely not good and I could not find any good job with high salaries. I am not complaining choosing a wrong major subject is the reason for my failure and I know that the main reason is due to my weak communication and language skills. The main problem is that if choosing some major subjects, we could grantee to have a job with brighter future, including nursing and engineering. Therefore, the slogan " Interest goes first" really doubt me and I am not sure about if it is correct. Really hope that I can answer myself later.

29 Sep 2017 Stable market before holiday and a new word "FinTech"

Affect by the holiday, the stock market on 29 Sep is very steady with only 73B volume when it ended. Relatively strong movement appear after 3pm and HSI increase from 100 points to 150 points. The performance of the previously mentioned new stock ZnongAn(6060.HK) is still very weak and now it much closer to its IPO price $59.7. My original plan is to purchase more stocks if the stock price is over $70, which is a huge reference point for this stock, but given the weak performance, we should still observe the stock for a longer period.

At this moment I am still holding Tencent which is worth ~$150000, some 2823.HK and 7300.HK and the cash ratio is about 50%. As HSI is about 27500, which is in the middle of the range of 27000-28000, I prefer not doing anything except day trading. 

Apart from the stock market, I want to talk about FinTech. FinTech, which refers to Financial Technology, is a very popular word nowadays. The first time I heard this word is from my boss Dennis, and then the new listing stock ZhongAn Online. When I first heard this word, I completely did not understand what does this mean and because of this, I found my best friend, Google, to search the exact meaning of this term. The evolution of technology helps people to do everything in a more convenient way, including financial business. In the past, people already purchased insurance by face-to-face communication,  but now people can use their smartphone and credit card to purchase insurance online without going to insurance companies. 

Fintech is definitely a good idea to attract more international institutions and investors to have business in HK so as to further expand the financial market in Hong Kong. Take securities industry as an example, according to the ordinance from SFC, to open a securities account, we must have a witness to confirm the identity of the account opener. However, to do so, witnesses are not the only way. With the aid of technology, video conversation, or fingerprint confirmation, etc are some alternatives to help account openers to finish all the procedure at home. People no longer need to waste time to do the witness confirmation, especially for people living outside Hong Kong. 

I understand that security problem is a  big concern for regulators as we can never imagine how advanced technology could be, including fake fingerprint production, pre-recorded video conversation, etc. Regulators need to have deliberation on the consequences and which one should take the responsibility when some financial crimes happen. I believe that the regulators are still working on all the rules and details before implementing any fin-tech related policies to make big changes to the whole financial industry. Let us wait and see the presents our regulators will give us in the future 

28 Sep 2017 What IPO cases tell us

Today,28 Sep 2017, is the listing date of ZhongAn Online 6060.HK with the listing price of $59.7, which is extremely expensive compared to the profit performance of the company. There are two reasons making this stock such a high listing price, including the industry the company is involved and the star investors who subscribed for the new shares.

ZhongAn is a fin-tech company involving in the online insurance business. After the outstanding performance of technology companies, including Tencent, 2018.HK, 2382.HK, etc, the market usually provided a high premium price to them. However, the implication of this IPO to me is that the stock market is already at the peak so that the company would like to have IPO at this time to enjoy high premium price. Similarly, in October 2019, another famous company China Literature Limited is preparing for its IPO. It used to be a part of the Tencent business and now Tencent decides to divide it into another listed company. Enjoying the reputation of Tencent, the market also offers a very high premium price to CLL with a PE ratio of over 900 despite its poor profit performance in the past 3 years. From these two IPO cases, I think that both companies are intended to choose autumn as the IPO date so as to gain the maximum capital from the market and their IPO show that it is the time for investors to consider selling all their stocks.

 Apart from the stock market, there is also a personal experience I would like to share. When backing home yesterday(27 Sep 2017), there was a dragonfly in the home and, according to its flying pattern, it was obvious that it lost its way to escape from this house. Hence, I decided to help it and used a paper to hit the wall so as to make some sound which provided it the flying position. Then the dragonfly moved to the toilet and I turned on the exhaust fan and hoped that the wind flow could give it some hints about the position of the window which is the exit. Unfortunately, the stupid dragonfly might think that exhaust fan was the exit and it hit the rotating fan, which caused its life. This story tells me that sometimes we may finally do a bad thing even if our intention at the beginning is to do something good. There are many things out of our control and far from our expectation. What we need to do is to accept the truth and think what we can improve so that the similar tasks could be done better.

27 Sep 2017 HSI still moving in the 27K-28K range

I feel really sorry about missing the blog in yesterday. Now the market looks like a child who loses his way to home. He does not know which direction he should go and when he should stop. HSI is moving in a range of 27000-28000 and still waiting for some news or issues to clean out all the uncertainty, including war, company annual report, economic stats, etc. However, I think, in this moment, the probability of HSI to go up or down is not fifty-fifty. After a nine-month uptrend of HSI, the market has been accumulated a lot of profits that wait for the release. If there is some serious threat in the world, including the war between USA and the North Korea, the market could drop for at least 4000 points. But this serious international conflict is just an assumption at this moment and the truth is the HSI now has no direction. Hence, Day-trading is the plan that I will choose and hope for good results.

25/9/2017 Turns out day trading plan may not be suitable for me + love relationships

Today is the second time that I resume writing this blog with a very a sad feeling. As mentioned before, I bought a huge amount of 7200 last Friday for day trading but I was not able to sole them out due to the busy workload. 

Then, on this Monday morning, HSI dropped ~150 points when the market started and it accelerated to ~400 points at the end of the market. It is a huge loss for people who bought a lot of stocks and +ve Etf, including me. 

However, I am not caring how much I lost in the morning. What we should care is that whether the true fall or the market crash has come. In my opinion, HSI is still moving in a range between 27000-28000, so buying at 27000 and selling at 28000 is the plan that we suppose to follow. Previously, I thought that it is the time that HSI will be over 28000 and step to another uptrend stage, which is wrong after looking at the performance of HSI today. A wrong decision comes along with capital loss and a correct decision comes along with fortunes. Hence, the most important point is what is our next plan after knowing the market performance.  

Given HSI is still in a range of 27000-28000, what we should do is to wait until HSI is above 28000, which is a moment to buy +ve ETF or below 27000 which is a moment to buy -ve ETF. To get all the capital we lost before, we must be brave enough to invest all the remaining money into the market. Please remember.

Overall, I think I am a very unlucky person and still in a process to understand the stock market. Every time when I keep all the stocks which supposed to be day traded overnight, a huge capital loss will occur.

Let us discuss love and relationships. My colleague, a fresh graduate girl who just worked in this company for around 3 weeks, told me she was in a relationship with her boyfriend for around 1 week and now they broke up as her boyfriend betrayed her. As she had relationships with 3 boyfriends and this is the fourth broke up experience, I think it should not be a very big problem for her to recover due to the short relationship period.  However,  she is really sad this time and the feeling of sadness is much deeper than the experience before, which means she does deeply love the ex-boyfriend. Because of the above reason, she is willing to wait for the ex-boyfriend to come back after he broke up with her new girlfriend and she does not mind being a substitute even if she was betrayed by him. After understanding to her case, I am really speechless and wonder why there will be such a stupid girl in this world as she truly believes that a man who betrayed her before will not do the same thing next time, which shows that she completely does not understand the human nature. The reason for gold being the most expensive metal in the world is mainly because of the rarity, which makes people value it and feel reluctant to abandon it. No person will value anything which could be found everywhere, including air, water, etc. Hopefully, she will finally understand that she will gain no love from everyone if she fails to show her value.

23/09/2017 A new start of this blog

It is the first time I write this blog again since several months before. Honestly, I am really happy that I get motivated again to re-write it. This blog used to be my channel to express my financial views, especially in the stock market. However, later on, I found that I did not have too much to write as it is not easy to write something new about the market every day. Then I tried to write the blog every week or even month and finally, I abandoned this habit.

After having a very disappointed group interview of SATCO in civil aviation department, I originally found that the problem is because of my poor English speaking ability and shot concentration time to understand what other interviewees said. However, talking to my supervisors, I found out my true problem is the lack of confidence, which has been a very serious problem for me as it has already caused me to lose a lot of opportunities including meeting friends, getting jobs and having girlfriends. I know that it is the problem while I try my best to avoid facing instead of solving it.

Conclusion in one sentence: The way you face and handle your own problems results in your density.  If you face your problems bravely, you will get a good result and vice versa.

In fact, I really feel appreciated to have this group interview experience provided by CAD, which gives me a good chance to deeply understand myself and force me to solve the problems. I have learnt a lot with this interview, even if I finally did not receive an offer.

OK, then back to the original purpose of this blog, which is about the stock market. Several months ago, I thought that 24000 is the top of HSI and expected that It would drop to around 22000, so I bought a lot of 7300, which is an ETF having a contrary performance to HSI. Then I realized that I was wrong and HSI skyrocketed to 27800, which is the value on 22 Sep. As HSI was over 28000 several days before and Tencent broke it 1-year high as well, I regarded this as a buy signal and bought some Tencent stocks. However, on Friday, HSI dropped around 200 points to ~27800 and I bought a huge amount of 7200.HK, which is an ETF that double the performance of HSI on that trading day. The reason is that once the buy signal is shown, the uptrend should last for at least weeks. Hence, it is good timing to buy stocks. Hopefully, it is a correct decision.

25/4/2017, Is what I am doing correct? Is my new trading strategy feasible?

After conducting the research to investigate the volatility of a typical bull market, it is found that during a bull/bear market, HSI usually changes ~2000-4000 points and then it will turn around.

Hence, my new trading strategy is to gradually buy Inverse HSI ETF when it has already risen ~3000 points and gradually buy HSI ETF when it has already drop ~3000 points.

It is clear that now we are under bull market and HSI has already risen ~3000 points( From 21500 to 24500). Hence I started to buy inverse HSI ETF when it was around 24200 and buy more and it hit ~23800, However, now HSI bounces up to 24455(25 Apr 2017 data) and I already have some loss, which makes me worried about the potential huge loss.

Therefore, the purpose of today's topic is whether it is a good strategy or whether I am not mentally-strong enough to execute this strategy without any hesitation. Indeed, at least in this moment, I still truly believe this trading strategy works. What make it worse is my mental condition. Being mentally strong is really vital to survive in stock market, where you need to use your money, which is very hard-earned by you or someone who trusts you very much, to do a lot of gambling.

Hopefully, I can survive in this casino.

18/4/2017, After Easter

After the 3-month rally, it is the first time that the close of HSI is below 24000. From the previous rally, HSI already rose 3000 points, which should be nearly the end of the rally according to the historical data. Hence, probably it is the second last timing to buy inverse ETF and there maybe a double peak pattern, which is the last chance to buy inverse ETF.

Therefore, hopefully HSI will drop to 23500 in short time and then rebounce to 24000 which is the second peak. Then it will drop to 22500.

02 Apr 2017 Completely wrong prediction, but focus on the future

Refer to the last post, it was expected that HSI would drop to 20000, but in fact, it stopped at 21500 and rise to 24500 which is a year high record. My prediction is totally wrong and i could only earn ~15000 from that rally (expect to earn $50000).

However, it has already gone and we need to look future to find another investment opportunities. From the previous rally, there are some interesting facts that we should remember and see whether they will be important buy/sell signals.

1. the volume rise to 100bn, is it a signal for rally or decline?
2. after reaching 24000, stock prices of those with low/mid market value increased a lot, and now starting dropping
3. Volume drop to ~700bn, but maybe it is because of the coming holidays
4. Most financial reporter thought now it is in the correction period but not a decline

I think the decline is coming really soon, already plan to buy inverse HSI index etf to capture the decline.