HSI is getting lower and lower and i have been looking forward to this for a long time. Again it shows the true power of candle and technical analysis. The candle shape in the early Sep always showed the year high of HSI this year. Now what I need to do is not to be afraid of buying stocks. It is the great moment to put all your money into the market.
Refer to 從以往歷史估計目前恆指情況's analysis. The bottom of the HSI should be around 20000.
At that time, I am sure the market will be in panic selling. Just need to be patient and wait for this coming.
Technical Analysis
HSI: 21574
HSI RSI: 28.6
Dow's 19933
Cow:Bear 53:47
Stock:Cash: 30:70
2016年12月18日 星期日
18 Dec 2016 Feel the great fall is coming
When we should buy or sell?
After reviewing the historical index trend, it is easy to find that "Double Bottom" pattern appear most of the time and it is a very important signal to determine buy-order timing. On the contrary, if this pattern fail and the stock market ,which is already at the second bottom, keep falling, it will cause another huge fall and people will be frightened of it.
At this moment, given that RSI of HSI is near 30 and Dow' index almost hit 20000, HSI is at the position of the second bottom. Normally, it means it is a good time to buy stock and i should try to buy more and more. However, I feel frightened whole day as I think it is highly possible that the second bottom is not a strong supporting position and so the market will fall easily with the aid of Dow's failure to hit 20000.
So, I decide to sell more stock to have a felling that i am at a safe position. At this moment, my stock-cash ratio is 30:70. I am going to increase the cash ratio to around 75-80% and hopefully this fall will not bring me to lose more than 10 thousands. After selling, what I am looking for is, of course, another second bottom pattern.
Technical analysis
HSI RSI: 34.3
C:B ratio: 60:40
Dow's index: 19843
After reviewing the historical index trend, it is easy to find that "Double Bottom" pattern appear most of the time and it is a very important signal to determine buy-order timing. On the contrary, if this pattern fail and the stock market ,which is already at the second bottom, keep falling, it will cause another huge fall and people will be frightened of it.
At this moment, given that RSI of HSI is near 30 and Dow' index almost hit 20000, HSI is at the position of the second bottom. Normally, it means it is a good time to buy stock and i should try to buy more and more. However, I feel frightened whole day as I think it is highly possible that the second bottom is not a strong supporting position and so the market will fall easily with the aid of Dow's failure to hit 20000.
So, I decide to sell more stock to have a felling that i am at a safe position. At this moment, my stock-cash ratio is 30:70. I am going to increase the cash ratio to around 75-80% and hopefully this fall will not bring me to lose more than 10 thousands. After selling, what I am looking for is, of course, another second bottom pattern.
Technical analysis
HSI RSI: 34.3
C:B ratio: 60:40
Dow's index: 19843
2016年11月25日 星期五
26/11/2016 Dow's index reached historical high, how about HSI? Should we still trust media?
As I will take the JRE exam later, writing blog is good change to practice English writing. So, this time the content will be in English.
After the president election in America, due to the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the election, it is expected that there will be a huge fall in stock market. Ironically, the America and stock market runs contrarily and reaches historical high.
It is a very interesting phenomenon that surprising news appears very frequently nowadays and media control, in my opinion, is the root making everyone shocked. Normally, people receive information by social media and television and they will make decision based on what they get in front of screens. In other words, if an organization is powerful enough to control the media, it can spread what they want people to receive and insert that thought into their mind. If the through, which is deeply into residents' mind, is actually incorrect, an unexpected outcome will appear and it can result in huge impact in financial market, which is a perfect timing to earn a lot of money.
This story tells me that do not be distracted easily and trust personal judgement only based on the fact but not opinion.
Then let talk about the stock market. From the past several weeks, stock market in America, China and Japan rose a lot, whereas Hong Kong stock market still keeps its own path, which is a piece of very frustrating news for investors, such as me, focusing on Hong Kong stock market.
One of my main concerns is that the Cow-Bear Ratio keeps very high for a long time period, which arouse my curiosity that whether it is still a good signal to find out a good timing to input buy or sell order. RSI, however, keep showing its value to provide good signal for me and I appreciate it a lot.
At this moment, my Stock:money ratio is about 35:65 and I feel safe at this position. Due to the increasing trend in international stock market, I may be willing to increase the ratio to 40-45:60-55.
I am happy and stay positive in this trend and hopefully Hong Kong stock market will catch up very soon
Technical Analysis
RSI: 49.3
Dow's Index: 19152
Cow-Bear Ratio: 61:39
2016年11月6日 星期日
06/11/2016 從以往歷史估計目前恆指情況
文章開始前,先從過往的數據了解以前恆指的走勢, 下列數據為恆指經歷了金融海潚後恆指的高低點
27/10/2008: lowest: 10676 18/11/2009: highest: 23099 27/5/2010: 18971
Change of Percentage
27/10/2008 10676
18/11/2009 23099(+116.5)
27/05/2010 18971(-18%)
金融海潚後, 恆指用了大慨一年的時間到達頂點,再用6個月的時間到達低點.而經歷內地股市大幅調整後,恆點在02/2016 到達低點(18278), 在09/2016 時到達最高點(24364, +33.5%). 如根據以往走勢的話, 恆指很有可能會經歷長達數月之跌勢.
美國總統大選將會在下星期二開始, 目前兩大侯選人的支持度不相伯仲,令人覺得對股市有壞影響的特朗普支持度近日開始回升.但本人認為希拉里當選的機會仍然十分之高,故我會在星期一的跌市期間買入股票, 期望希拉里當選時股市會回升數日.
Current market analysis
09/09/2016: 24364(highest)
04/11/2016: 22642(close) (-7%)
目前股市已從高位回落大慨2000點, 根據夜期的表現, 很有可能星期一 一開市便會再跌200點, 恆指RSI 已回落至37, 接近超賣, 配合星期二總統大選, 故我認為星期一 會是一個不錯的買入時機.
如果恆指的跌幅真如以往大幅調整18%, 那恆指的目標價便會在 20000點左右, 到時亦是一個買入的機會. 如果真的跌至20000點的話, 到時市場,社會肯定會叫苦連天,說恆指會再破新低, 緊記這是人們正常的反應(恐慌), 到時請不用害怕, 盡情買入便對了
Current Holding:
Amount of Stock Holding: (~7%)
Available Cash: (~93%)
Holding after Mon: Stock(~14%), Cash(~86%)
Technical Analysis
HSI RSI: 37
Cow-Bear Ratio: 62:38
Dow's Index: 17888
27/10/2008: lowest: 10676 18/11/2009: highest: 23099 27/5/2010: 18971
Change of Percentage
27/10/2008 10676
18/11/2009 23099(+116.5)
27/05/2010 18971(-18%)
金融海潚後, 恆指用了大慨一年的時間到達頂點,再用6個月的時間到達低點.而經歷內地股市大幅調整後,恆點在02/2016 到達低點(18278), 在09/2016 時到達最高點(24364, +33.5%). 如根據以往走勢的話, 恆指很有可能會經歷長達數月之跌勢.
美國總統大選將會在下星期二開始, 目前兩大侯選人的支持度不相伯仲,令人覺得對股市有壞影響的特朗普支持度近日開始回升.但本人認為希拉里當選的機會仍然十分之高,故我會在星期一的跌市期間買入股票, 期望希拉里當選時股市會回升數日.
Current market analysis
09/09/2016: 24364(highest)
04/11/2016: 22642(close) (-7%)
目前股市已從高位回落大慨2000點, 根據夜期的表現, 很有可能星期一 一開市便會再跌200點, 恆指RSI 已回落至37, 接近超賣, 配合星期二總統大選, 故我認為星期一 會是一個不錯的買入時機.
如果恆指的跌幅真如以往大幅調整18%, 那恆指的目標價便會在 20000點左右, 到時亦是一個買入的機會. 如果真的跌至20000點的話, 到時市場,社會肯定會叫苦連天,說恆指會再破新低, 緊記這是人們正常的反應(恐慌), 到時請不用害怕, 盡情買入便對了
Current Holding:
Amount of Stock Holding: (~7%)
Available Cash: (~93%)
Holding after Mon: Stock(~14%), Cash(~86%)
Technical Analysis
HSI RSI: 37
Cow-Bear Ratio: 62:38
Dow's Index: 17888
2016年11月5日 星期六
2016年10月23日 星期日
23/10/2016: 仍然是上落市
自從9 Sep 及11 Oct 兩大signal後, 我預料後市好大機會會開始下跌,而早前恆指的確已經跌穿一支持位23000(最低22978), 但其後又回升至23000以上. 道指亦繼續在18000點以上不斷徘徊,未有任何突破. 面對現在這上落市,可以做的就是波幅trading(23000 buy;24000 sell), 然後期待下一次的突破
平時只會trade 2800的我,最近也有些新的想法: 2822及2823(中國版恆指), 最近做了些research,發現2822和2823 與上證的co-relation其實亦不算是非常高(對比2800及恆指),而這其實是買A50的最大隱憂. 但是最近發現其實中國也是上落市(3000-3100), 故想發掘更多的投資方法以提高回報
Technical analysis
HSI RSI: 49.7
Cow Bear Ratio: 57:43
Dow's index: 18145
平時只會trade 2800的我,最近也有些新的想法: 2822及2823(中國版恆指), 最近做了些research,發現2822和2823 與上證的co-relation其實亦不算是非常高(對比2800及恆指),而這其實是買A50的最大隱憂. 但是最近發現其實中國也是上落市(3000-3100), 故想發掘更多的投資方法以提高回報
Technical analysis
HSI RSI: 49.7
Cow Bear Ratio: 57:43
Dow's index: 18145
2016年10月10日 星期一
10/10/2016 橫行又橫行
經過了兩星期沒寫blog, 主因是因為市場仍然處於整固期, 市場亦沒有什麼好消息/壞消息出現, 上次議息會議完結了, 市場最大的消息只是關於討論下一期的議息會議,會升/會跌.
現在我的看法是市場處於一個約1000點波幅的階段(23000-24000), 所以目前我的stragedy 就是23000買,24000賣, 直至指數跌超過23000點/高於上次高點.that is it. 根據圖表, 下跌的機會是大於上升, 所以我仍然不會大手買入, 炒波幅也只會買少少only
Technical analysis
HSI RSI: 58.7
牛熊: 72:28
Dow's Index: 18366
現在我的看法是市場處於一個約1000點波幅的階段(23000-24000), 所以目前我的stragedy 就是23000買,24000賣, 直至指數跌超過23000點/高於上次高點.that is it. 根據圖表, 下跌的機會是大於上升, 所以我仍然不會大手買入, 炒波幅也只會買少少only
Technical analysis
HSI RSI: 58.7
牛熊: 72:28
Dow's Index: 18366
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